Daniel Ureña analiza las consecuencias políticas del pacto fiscal en EEUU en la SER y Expansión

24-27 enero 2012: 1ª edición del Curso de Estrategia de Gobierno
29 julio, 2011
Barack Obama, la crisis de la deuda y el poder de la opinión pública
2 agosto, 2011
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Daniel Ureña analiza las consecuencias políticas del pacto fiscal en EEUU en la SER y Expansión

Daniel Ureña, Socio-Director de MAS Consulting, analiza para la Cadena Ser y Expansión el pacto alcanzado entre demócratas y republicanos en Estados Unidos para elevar el techo de endeudamiento. Entre las cuestiones analizadas se encuentra el escenario político resultante de cara a las próximas eecciones presidenciales en EEUU, que se celebrarán en 2012.

Daniel Ureña valoró ayer el acuerdo para evitar la suspensión de pagos de Estados Unidos y el intenso debate previo entre demócratas y republicanos en la Cadena SER.  Su intervención puede escucharse aquí:

Asimismo, Expansión publica hoy un artículo titulado “Ni vencedores ni vencidos” en el que el Socio-Director de MAS Consulting analiza las consecuencias políticas de este pacto de cara a las elecciones presidenciales de 2012. A continuación reproducimos el texto que se puede leer en la edición online e impresa del diario [p.39]:

“Durante los últimos días, la ciudad de Washington ha asistido a una de las negociaciones políticas más intensas que se recuerdan. Mientras la crisis económica sigue golpeando duramente a nivel internacional, la atención de millones de personas en todo el mundo ha estado puesta en las conversaciones entre los líderes republicanos y demócratas. Finalmente, el acuerdo ha sido posible a pocas horas del límite, con el suspense propio de un guión de Aaron Sorkin.

Desde el punto de vista político, lo sucedido en las últimas semanas en Estados Unidos tendrá algunas consecuencias en vísperas de un año electoral en el que Barack Obama se juega su reelección:

1. Aumentará las dudas sobre el liderazgo internacional de EEUU.

Aquellas voces que proclaman su declive como la gran superpotencia internacional encontrarán argumentos favorables para sus teorías. La sensación de inestabilidad política y económica que EEUU ha transmitido en los últimos días hace un flaco favor a su hegemonía internacional. No obstante, aunque finalmente el desastre se ha evitado, pero parte del daño ya está hecho.

2. La economía será uno de los temas centrales de las elecciones.

La campaña de 2012 tendrá dos grandes ejes: Barack Obama y la economía. Durante los próximos meses, se analizará si Obama ha sido capaz de cumplir todas las promesas que le llevaron a la Casa Blanca en 2008, pero también se juzgará si su Gobierno ha sido capaz de impulsar la recuperación económica. Tras la crisis de la deuda, la economía estará todavía más presente en la agenda.


3. Crecerá el descontento hacia el establishment político, lo que beneficia al Tea Party.

La amenaza de que el Gobierno de EEUU pudiera entrar en suspensión de pagos por la falta de acuerdo entre sus representantes políticos servirá para alimentar el sentimiento de rechazo hacia el establishment de Washington. Este discurso, que defiende que los políticos tradicionales están alejados de los intereses de la gente, ha sido utilizado por el Tea Party desde su creación en 2009 para captar y movilizar a sus seguidores. En los últimos días, es muy probable que ese sentimiento se haya incrementando entre muchos estadounidenses que veían cómo sus políticos eran incapaces de ponerse de acuerdo mientras estaba en juego la solvencia económica del país.

4. El apoyo a Barack Obama pasa por su momento más bajo en tres años.

En dos meses, el índice de aprobación de Barack Obama ha caído 10 puntos, pasando del 50% al 40%, lo que supone el nivel de apoyo más bajo en toda la legislatura. Si bien estos números pueden repuntar tras el acuerdo, su liderazgo no ha salido muy reforzado, sobre todo porque los republicanos han conseguido la gran mayoría de sus pretensiones.

Además, por primera vez se ha criticado la estrategia online de Obama, cuando el pasado jueves empezó a utilizar Twitter para pedir a los internautas que, a modo de presión, escribieran a los representantes republicanos de cada Estado, publicando los datos de sus cuentas. El resultado fue que muchos buzones de congresistas y senadores republicanos quedaron saturados, pero también que 36.000 personas dejaron de seguir a Obama en Twitter, descontentos con esta acción.

5. El Partido Republicano sigue transmitiendo falta de unidad.

No todo son buenas noticias para el Partido Republicano. De cara a 2012, la única opción que tiene para ganar es acoger a todas las sensibilidades políticas que forman la gran familia conservadora para conseguir un candidato de consenso. Para eso, tendrá que afrontar el difícil reto de integrar en sus filas al Tea Party, que hasta la fecha prefiere ir por libre y hacer gala de su independencia”.

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